Swell Forecast & Schedule

Report Date & Time: Wed. March 10, 2010

By forecaster: Austin Gendron: austin@globalsurfreports.com

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Surf Synopsis:

Today (Wednesday) with the north Pacific on replay, we have several pulses of swell through the end of the week/weekend to watch out for as well as associated frontal systems bringing cold air and gusty conditions from the NW.  Read further for details…

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Buoy Readings:

46059 California Buoy has been deployed, but awaits activation
46212 Humboldt Bay – 13 feet @ 14 seconds from 305 degrees
46014 Pt Arena Buoy – 13 feet @ 16 seconds
46026 San Francisco Buoy – 10 ft @ 16 seconds from 272 degrees
46042 Monterey Buoy – 10 ft @ 11 seconds from 312 degrees
46028 Cape San Martin – 11 feet @ 13 seconds from 307 degrees

The CDIP Buoy 157 is showing, NW periods dominantly about 12 seconds from 300 degrees, while south hemi swell is minimal.

Currently most Northern and Central California’s stand out west facing breaks are seeing surf in the range of overhead to a couple feet overhead.  Stand out south facing spots should be seeing conditions in the knee high to waist high+ range.

Water temps are in the low to mid 50’s through most of Northern and Central California, Crescent City showing 51, Pt Arena 53.  The San Francisco is around 54 and further south Monterey is seeing 55 degrees and Cape San Martin showing 56.

 

Wind Outlook:

Today (Wednesday) in Northern California gradients have begun to ease up a bit as the front from last nights system passes inland.  Calmer winds should spread southward through Thursday morning.  A large low developing in the Gulf of Alaska is expected to drop down the West Coast late Thursday.  This would bring a period of possibly gale force S to SW winds ahead of the front, into Friday morning.  As the system passes to the east, west to northwest gradients will pick up behind it, impacting the coast through Saturday morning.  Over the weekend another strong low is expected to develop in the Gulf of Alaska, although it is not expected to impact the California coast, there could be some SW winds off the coast of the northern counties.  Most of the Central coast will be seeing moderate to strong NW gradients through the weekend and easing into the early part of next week.

Weather Outlook:

Today (Wednesday) high pressure has begun to build following last night’s frontal system.  There could still be some lingering showers through the morning, but those should extinguish by this afternoon.  Most of Thursday is looking pretty mild, and quite a bit drier.  Finally there is a third system due for the end of the week, possibly Thursday evening but more likely over night.  This system looks like a quick one, but could bring some decent rain and gale force winds to areas north of the Bay before moving into Central California through Friday and Friday evening.  After the system passes over it looks like drier weather once again as ridging occurs Saturday morning and should last through early next week.  Temperatures could even rise above seasonal norms on Monday and Tuesday.  The next chance of rain isn’t due till possibly later Tuesday, although the models are quite a ways out, and it looks like most of the Central Coast will be spared.

Swell Forecast and Schedule:

Today, we’ve got quite a bit of mixed up swell from the W and NW, creating some less than ideal conditions for exposed breaks, with the winds not helping much.  It looks like the next groundswell has begun to fill in to the north, with periods around 16 seconds from 300-305 degrees.  The swell arrival should continue to move south through the day escalating wave heights a few feet.  The peak is due for later in the day, but doesn’t look like it will last for very long, quickly backing off Thursday. 

Today’s models are showing gradients associated with Thursday/Friday’s weather system developing sea heights around 30 to 35 feet off the Vancouver BC coast.  Although the system is a bit bigger, it looks like a poor angle will result in a groundswell with periods around 14-seconds from more than likely a more northerly angle around 300 to 315 degrees.  The initial pulse of swell will be a bit smaller from the closer to 300 degrees, but as the swell increases in size into Saturday the angle will turn more northerly.  There is a peak due for Saturday, which should quickly back off through Sunday.

The long-range models have perked up a bit, with a new system showing north of Hawaii about 93 hours out.  This is a rebuild of smaller system in the West Pacific about 36 hours out.  The long fetch should develop seas around 35 feet, capable of sending a decent pulse for mid day on the 15th from the WNW to NW at around 290 to 295 degrees.  The swell looks like it will build through the 15th with periods around 17 seconds, holding size into the 17th with periods holding in the 15-seconds range.

Beyond that, the longer-range models are showing a possible swell fro around the 22nd, but it’s much too early to tell for sure.

Here's what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:
Today (Wednesday the 10th) as the NW continues to back off the next system should fill in through the day.  Wave heights are currently projected around overhead to several feet overhead at stand out breaks and should be increasing through the day; although conditions look less than ideal, with a mix of wind swell and leftovers.  Periods will most likely be around 15 to 16 seconds. 

Thursday the 11th, Wednesday’s swell should start to back off through the day.  I personally feel like the charts have gotten a little over zealous on this one, and that wave heights will more typically be a couple feet overhead to several feet overhead, with some more exposed locations seeing DOH+, but TOH seems a bit of a stretch, based on current calculations and buoy readings.  Periods are calculated at around 14 seconds from 300 to 310 degrees.  Expect some weather issues later in the day.

Friday the 12th another pulse of swell from the NW is expected to reach the coast mid day.  Wave heights are expected to escalate again into the DOH range at stand out breaks.  Periods are looking to be in the 14-second range initially, possibly holding through part of the weekend.  It looks like rain and wind could continue through the day.

Saturday the 13th, the ridge of high pressure should bring a break in the weather finally, and it looks like the swell will peak in the DOH+ range at stand out breaks, with periods around 14 seconds.  The angle of this one is going to be a bit steeper according to my calculations possibly between 300 and 315 degrees. 

Sunday the 14th the NW swell continues to back down, with wave heights calculated to be in the range of a couple feet overhead down to head high and overhead by the evening.  Periods should decrease to around 13 seconds from 300+ degrees.

Monday the 15th a new swell arrival is due from the system discussed above.  Wave heights will slowly increase through the day before jumping up quite a bit mid to late in the afternoon.   Its hard to say how big this swell will actually be, but my calculations are showing possibly DOH+ with periods around 17 seconds.

Tuesday the 16th, Monday’s swell arrival continues to bring large surf to the coast.  Stay tuned

Further out there’s another possible groundswell for the 22nd.

That's it for today, be safe, and get in the water!

~ Austin