Swell Forecast & Schedule

Report Date & Time: Thur. Mar. 11, 2010 6:55 AM
By forecaster: Nathan Cool

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Surf Synopsis
This morning (Thursday) NW wind swell has backed off as steep angled NW ground swell remains. Some light southern hemi is in the background as well. The NW ground swell should back off later today into Friday. Conditions are looking better for winds and weather today and Friday, although we are headed into a tidal swing as we approach a New Moon on Monday. Another round of NW wind/ground swell is due this weekend, but conditions are looking questionable then. Next NW ground swell is due around St. Patrick's day, which could be a rather clean swell as an offshore event is due next week.

Currently, periods in SoCal are running 14 seconds from a very steep 310 degrees. Some southern hemi is coming through from 190 with 20-second periods.

Right now in SoCal, well-exposed west facing breaks are looking at sets running chest to at times head high. The steep angle of the NW though is making it tough for many breaks, especially OC where island blockage is making for smaller surf. Direct south facing breaks are running waist+.

Note that the NWS has posted high surf advisories for some areas, expiring later this afternoon.

 

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Wind Outlook
Winds at 6:00 this morning were light and variable most everywhere with a NNE element. ENE winds may increase throughout the morning near the coast, maxing out around 7-12 mph, calming by noon, and becoming moderately onshore this afternoon. High pressure moving into the area is responsible for today's milder, offshore (AM) conditions. Friday AM looks somewhat similar, but an approaching trough should kick up onshores by late morning, reaching 15+ in the afternoon. Onshore winds are likely to persist into Saturday as the trough swings a low through the area to the north. Sunday though should see high pressure move into the area to bring back an offshore flow. So far, it looks like this will bring mild to moderate offshore winds to AM sessions through Tuesday, with the peak of the offshore event Monday into Tuesday, weakening some Wednesday as light troughing breaks down the high (somewhat).

 

Weather Outlook
NOTE: NWS warnings in effect.
No rain in sight for SoCal. High pressure today should help beaches reach the low 60s. A little cooler Friday as a storm passes to the north. Saturday may only see high 50s at the coast as the storm/low to the north drives colder air into SoCal. Sunday should rebound nicely into the mid 60s as high pressure builds into the region, and Monday-Tuesday could see 70° temps at the coast.

 

Swell Forecast and Schedule
Synopsis
Buoys this morning show the wind swell has backed off dramatically as mostly NW ground swell remains. Harvest was at 13 feet at 15 seconds, and San Nicholas 13 feet at 14 seconds. Angle though on both is around 320° for this bigger size. Other outer buoys show 8-9 feet seas from 300°. No buoys are showing a decline just yet in SoCal, but this swell is expected to back off this afternoon.

Jetstream remains at a high latitude and should drape southward a tad this weekend, allowing the next swell-maker to get a little too close to the region, resulting in winds and onshore flow in SoCal Saturday. NW swell though will be on the rise Saturday from this next system, peaking Sunday (when weather clears and winds begin to turn offshore). The jet is riding higher than models anticipated earlier this week, so there should be less wind swell, and Sunday may be a fair day with moderately sized surf.

There was some activity near Antarctica last week that is also coming through, yet with the NW now bringing at least waist high wrap to direct south facing breaks, the 190° southern hemi energy should merely add itself to the mix, and perhaps bring a few pluses.

Models now show potential NW ground swell building on the 16th, peaking on the 17th. This would be from a Western Pacific system that models show riding high in the jetstream, but building into a fetch with 30-foot seas once near the Gulf. The 72h models say the fetch would be at a moderate latitude, enough to bring some overhead NW from around 290-300° for SoCal. More on this in my next report.

Long range southern hemi models continue to show signs of SW hope for later this month. The system for the 23rd though has been downgraded, but another could bring a little better something around the 25th. Still too early to call today, but I'll stay on top of it and keep you posted.

Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:

 

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Friday the 12th looks like a waist high day most everywhere, although west facing breaks may still see some chest high sets.

Saturday the 13th into Sunday the 14th we should see another round of NW wind/ground swell. Conditions are looking less than favorable for Saturday when this swell builds. Swell builds from north to south, with ETA early to mid morning in SB/VC, mid to late morning in LA, and then afternoon in OC/SD. Max size on arrival should be around chest to head high for well-exposed west facing breaks.

Sunday the 14th conditions should clear as the NW swell comes to its peak. Head high max at well-exposed west facing breaks seems like a reasonable expectation.

Monday the 15th this swell should back off to chest high max.

Tuesday the 16th is likely to start our small to moderate, with NW ground swell filling in late in the day.

Wednesday the 17th could see surf running 1-3 feet overhead from 290-300° from the next NW'er being watched on the long range models. More on this in my next report.

Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the line-up!

—Nathan