Swell Forecast & Schedule

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Surf Synopsis
Today (Thursday) the NW ground swell has arrived on schedule as has the brief offshore event. Both peak today. We also have some weak southern hemi in the background (with NW wrap overshadowing it). NW swell backs off Friday and winds revert as well. Saturday may not be so pretty as a weather front moves through the area Friday night, but NW swell should build and then peak Sunday, when conditions improve once again. It then looks like we'll see a modest NW'er Wednesday the 25th, Turkey Day may be small, but long range models show the possibility of some NW swell for the 27th-28th.

Currently, NW periods are running 14 seconds from 305 degrees in the outer waters, wrapping into SoCal around 295 degrees. Southerly periods are running 17 seconds from 225.

In SoCal, most west facing breaks are seeing chest to head high sets. OC has some sheltering from island blockage and is a bit smaller.

Northern California and the Central Coast are seeing sets running head high to a few feet overhead at most west facing breaks, DOH at standouts (mostly along the Central Coast). Direct south facing breaks are looking at chest to at times head high waves.

The tide was low around 3:30 AM at about 2.7 feet, goes high around 9:45 AM to about 5.9 feet, and then low around 5:30 PM to about -0.3 feet.

Water temps are averaging 62 in SD, 62 in OC, 61 in LA, 60 in VC, 63 in SB, 58 along the Central Coast and 55 in NCal.

Wind Outlook
Winds at 6:00 this morning were light and variable most everywhere with an offshore, northeast element. Offshore winds may pick up to about 10 mph in many spots this morning before turning lightly onshore this afternoon -- this, as high pressure builds into the area today. Friday should start out light and variable, but with a trough bearing down on the region and high pressure moving to the east, look for onshore winds to increase early on, and then reach 15 mph in the afternoon. The trough moving in Friday should pass Saturday morning, but high pressure moving in from the Pacific behind it is likely to create some northerly gradients, which could kick up some northerly winds early on. So far, this looks like a weak northerly wind event, just likely enough to put some texture on things, and mostly for areas north of OC. As high pressure builds more Sunday, an offshore pattern should develop, lingering through a good part of the week as a Santa Ana. At this point, models show this being mostly being a surface event with no upper atmosphere support, and no significant thermal gradients. With this kind of pattern, only a mild to moderate offshore wind event is expected.

Weather Outlook
A decent day on tap today as high pressure moves into the region, putting beaches near the 70° mark. A trough moving through the region Friday should cool things down a few degrees, and bring an ever-so-slight chance of rain to the area by Friday night. Saturday should see clearing, but cool air is likely to keep beaches in the mid 60s. Sunday should see a warm-up to the high 60s as high pressure makes a comeback. A mild to moderate Santa Ana early next week should keep beaches right around 70° through Wednesday. Long range models though show the next trough bearing down on the region by the end of the week, but it looks like Thanksgiving Day will be rather nice right now, with Friday into Saturday possibly seeing a cool-down. Too early to say for sure, but rain chances from the trough look negligible for SoCal.

Swell Forecast and Schedule
Synopsis
Today we're seeing the first of the two NW'ers mentioned in earlier reports this week coming our way from the Gulf. This swell will back down Friday. The second swell is expected to build late in the day Saturday and then peak Sunday, with just a little more juice than what we're seeing today. Saturday though may not have ideal conditions as a weather front passes to the east, but Sunday should not only have swell, but offshore winds as well.

Sunday's swell should back down Monday, more so Tuesday. The 36h+ models though show some action near the Aleutians, which should bring us some NW swell Wednesday the 25th. This system though is expected to remain at a very high latitude, which wouldn't throw as much swell our way, and steepen the angle to about 305-310°. In short, not a whole heck of a lot is expected out of this system.

The long range models though once again seem quite optimistic (don't they always?), with the 108h+ models showing the jetstream lowering, and driving a system toward our area at a fairly low latitude. In fact, the 144h+ models show this system coming within just 1200 miles from SoCal with 30-foot seas. If this does play out as models show today, then we could see some overhead NW swell around the 27th-28th. Still too early to call it today, but I'll stay on top of it and keep you posted.

Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:

Friday the 20th should see about a 20% decline from today, putting most west facing breaks in chest high surf max, smaller though as the day progresses. South facing breaks may only see waist+ wrap in the AM. Winds should be light and variable in the early AM, pick up onshore throughout the morning, and reach 15 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday the 21st we should see another NW swell start to build, but size is not looking to be much above waist to chest in the early AM around west facing breaks, and of course smaller at south facing spots. Swell though is expected to build later in the day. Conditions may be questionable as a weak weather front is expected to bring light precipitation Friday night, and there may be some northerly winds early Saturday morning -- 8-12 mph, not howling, but enough to texture things up.

Sunday the 22nd should see the NW swell come to its peak with chest to head high waves around most west facing breaks, possibly overhead at times at standouts. South facing breaks are looking at waist to chest high wrap. Conditions should improve and it looks like we should see some offshore winds in the AM, 8-12 mph from the ENE.

Monday the 23rd this swell is expected to back down to chest high max around west facing breaks. South facing spots would be smaller. Offshore winds may be a bit stronger than Sunday.

Tuesday the 24th looks smaller with knee to waist high surf most everywhere.

Wednesday the 25th should see a slight increase in NW swell. Anything though above waist high around west facing breaks would likely be rare, by the looks of things today.

Thursday the 26th looks smaller, perhaps knee to waist most everywhere.

Friday the 27th into Saturday the 28th is when our next NW swell is due. But as mentioned in the synopsis above, it's a bit too early to call it today. I'll stay on top of it and keep you posted.

Until my next WetSand report (Sunday), take care, be safe, smile in the line-up, and have a great weekend!

—Nathan